Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

3267

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

February 11 2020

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information psychological control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 42 32 56 55
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 77 70 89 128
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 3 3 3 4
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 4 2 9 12
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 215 105 138 143
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 48 29 77 77
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 8 5 10 8
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 3 3 3 5
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 39 36 40 91
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 35 86 102 95
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 14 22 12 9
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 38 20 26 57
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 78 171 133 100
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 49 60 69 50
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 47 50 55 42
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 22 21 78 54

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information psychological control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 2 0 1 2
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 5 3 5 8
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 1 0 0 1
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 6 2 1 0
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 1 1 2 1
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 1 0 1 0
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 2 1 2 6
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 4 9 13 11
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 2 4 1 0
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 3 1 1 4
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 2 7 6 4
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 8 5 4 4
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 3 2 1 2
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0 0 11 3

Column 3

Success rates

cash information psychological control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.04
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.06
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.25
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.08
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.01
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.12 0.00 0.10 0.00
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.07
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.11 0.10 0.13 0.12
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.14 0.18 0.08 0.00
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.07
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.04
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.16 0.08 0.06 0.08
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.05
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.06

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information psychological control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.05
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.08
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.06
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.05
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.06
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.09
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.07 0.09 0.07 0.05
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.06
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.07
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.05
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.05 0.04 0.12 0.06

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.53 0.11 0.11 0.24
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.34 0.12 0.26 0.28
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.29 0.14 0.21 0.35
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.21 0.16 0.38 0.25
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.67 0.25 0.05 0.04
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.43 0.33 0.16 0.08
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.31 0.15 0.40 0.14
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.31 0.20 0.28 0.20
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.29 0.11 0.26 0.34
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.07 0.14 0.54 0.25
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.20 0.49 0.24 0.08
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.33 0.18 0.19 0.30
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.30 0.18 0.29 0.23
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.51 0.19 0.11 0.19
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.47 0.19 0.08 0.26
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.03 0.02 0.91 0.05

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.48 0.14 0.14 0.24
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.32 0.15 0.25 0.28
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.29 0.17 0.22 0.33
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.21 0.18 0.36 0.25
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.59 0.25 0.09 0.08
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.39 0.31 0.18 0.12
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.30 0.17 0.37 0.16
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.30 0.21 0.28 0.21
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.28 0.14 0.25 0.32
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.10 0.17 0.48 0.25
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.21 0.44 0.24 0.11
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.32 0.20 0.20 0.29
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.29 0.20 0.28 0.23
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.46 0.20 0.14 0.20
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.43 0.20 0.11 0.26
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.07 0.07 0.77 0.09

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp (0.030, 0.090) (0.000, 0.070) (0.010, 0.070) (0.020, 0.080)
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp (0.040, 0.090) (0.020, 0.080) (0.030, 0.100) (0.030, 0.090)
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp (0.030, 0.120) (0.010, 0.110) (0.010, 0.140) (0.020, 0.170)
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp (0.030, 0.100) (0.010, 0.120) (0.020, 0.160) (0.020, 0.130)
Syr, F, < HS, never emp (0.020, 0.060) (0.010, 0.060) (0.000, 0.040) (0.000, 0.040)
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp (0.020, 0.080) (0.010, 0.090) (0.010, 0.070) (0.010, 0.060)
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp (0.030, 0.110) (0.010, 0.110) (0.020, 0.160) (0.010, 0.100)
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp (0.030, 0.100) (0.010, 0.110) (0.010, 0.140) (0.010, 0.110)
Jor, M, < HS, never emp (0.030, 0.090) (0.010, 0.080) (0.020, 0.110) (0.030, 0.100)
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp (0.040, 0.110) (0.050, 0.130) (0.070, 0.160) (0.060, 0.140)
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp (0.040, 0.120) (0.040, 0.170) (0.020, 0.150) (0.010, 0.100)
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp (0.040, 0.100) (0.020, 0.100) (0.010, 0.110) (0.030, 0.110)
Jor, F, < HS, never emp (0.020, 0.080) (0.020, 0.070) (0.020, 0.080) (0.020, 0.080)
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp (0.050, 0.140) (0.030, 0.120) (0.030, 0.100) (0.030, 0.120)
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp (0.030, 0.100) (0.020, 0.090) (0.010, 0.070) (0.020, 0.100)
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp (0.020, 0.090) (0.010, 0.080) (0.070, 0.180) (0.020, 0.100)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.016, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.008. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.000, 0.004)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.004, 0.036)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.014, 0.031) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.000, 0.003)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.000, 0.033)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.010, 0.027) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date